Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Note: Recent developments in the Middle East have dramatically altered ocean shipping rates, insurance costs, and vessel availability. The below estimates of CNF prices are believed to be accurate, but actual offers may differ significantly.
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 3.8 percent higher and were firmer in early week trading to rise 0.1 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were stronger to end last week but were up 0.4 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 51.24 cents/liter (193.95 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 10.4 percent higher but are down 0.3 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 49.85 cents/liter (188.69 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are down in early week trading, falling 2.6 percent to 62.83 cents/liter (237.82 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has narrowed from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -12.98 cents/liter (-49.13 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices rose 7.3 percent last week and were firmer still in early week trading to gain 0.4 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has increased from last week’s report and stands at 3.94 cents/liter (14.92 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were sharply higher last week and extended those gains through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was up 0.6 percent while Toluene was up 1.2 percent, and Xylene was up 1.5 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 76.15 cents/liter (288.25 cents/gallon), up from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread widened last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 26.3 cents/liter (99.56 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were mostly higher last week and are sharply higher in early week trade. RBOB futures are up 9.3 percent to start the week while FOB Prices for 87 CBOB and 87 conventional gasoline are up 1.4 and down 0.4 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 12.5 percent higher at $75.43/barrel while Brent futures are up 13.7 percent to $82.88/barrel, from Friday to Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 21 percent higher on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to Saudi Arabia seeing the largest gains (up 93 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to China saw the largest declines and is down 5 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is up 25 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 6 percent increase. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are up 29 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 76 percent higher than this same week in 2025.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly higher this week as higher freight rates offset lower FOB offers for ethanol. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 4.7 percent this week and are up 7.4 percent from this same week in 2025. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $760.5/MT this week, up 1.8 percent from the prior week and up 10.1 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $716.12/MT and are up 3 percent from last week and are up 4.9 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are down 2.2 percent from last week.
