Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 3 percent lower and continued that trend in early week trading to fall 0.5 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were weaker to end last week but were down 0.6 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 56.87 cents/liter (215.29 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 0.2 percent lower and are down 0.3 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 52.97 cents/liter (200.5 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are down in early week trading, falling 3.4 percent to 55.2 cents/liter (208.95 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has narrowed from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -2.23 cents/liter (-8.44 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices fell 4.3 percent last week and softened further in early week trading to fall 1.8 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 32.97 cents/liter (124.82 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were mixed last week but pulled back through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was down 5.3 percent while Toluene was down 2.1 percent, and Xylene was down 3.3 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 110.88 cents/liter (419.71 cents/gallon), down from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread narrowed last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 57.91 cents/liter (219.21 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were lower last week and dropped further in early week trade. RBOB futures are down 0.1 percent to start the week while FOB prices for 87 CBOB and 87 conventional gasoline are down 0.1 and 0.5 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 1.6 percent lower at $89.08/barrel while Brent futures are down 1.8 percent to $91.45/barrel, from Friday to Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 7 percent higher on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico seeing the largest gains (up 34 percent). Freight from the U.S. PNW to South Korea saw the largest declines and is down 2 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is up 9 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 1 percent decline. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are up 7 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 73 percent higher than this same week in 2025.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly lower this week as lower FOB offers for ethanol have offset gains in liquid tanker freight rates. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 1.4 percent this week and are up 12.5 percent from this same week in 2025. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $825.09/MT this week, down 1.3 percent from the prior week but up 19.5 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $812.14/MT and are down 0.6 percent from last week but are up 19.4 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are up 0.4 percent from last week.
